Fresh Models Should Spell Market Share Gains for Ford, Honda

Jun 10 2014, 11:20am CDT | by

A strong pipeline of new vehicles will boost the U.S. market share of Ford Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. by a half-point apiece by 2017, according to the latest annual “Car Wars” report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Ford and Honda every year will renew models that account for more than one-quarter of their sales volume, enabling them to capture market shares of 16.2% and 10.3%, respectively, B of A auto analyst John Murphy told the Automotive Press Assn. in Detroit on Monday.

Those gains will come at the expense of Nissan Motor Co. and European carmakers, which will each surrender 0.3 points of share (to 7.8% and 8.3%), Murphy predicts.

The rest of the industry will tread water, experiencing only temporary gains and losses tied to fluctuations in new-model introductions, the report forecasts. General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. will hold steady at 17.9% and 14.4% of the U.S. market, respectively.

Murphy said Fiat-Chrysler’s goal of a four-point jump in market share by 2018 is “pie in the sky, to put it politely.” He expects the alliance to maintain its current 11.5% share.

Market share was far more volatile over the past 10 years, with swings as dramatic as GM’s 10.1-point loss and Hyundai-Kia’s 4.3% gain since 2003. Murphy said the new stability will result from a steady flow of well-designed new models from automakers across the board.

Carmakers plan 192 vehicle launches for model years 2015-2018—an average of 48 models annually compared with an average of 38 models per year over the past two decades, according to the report. Some of the growth comes from expansion into new vehicle segments, such as hybrid, electric and crossover vehicles.

The other major factor is Detroit’s comeback, Murphy said. Domestic carmakers have finally caught up with Japanese rivals and are now revamping their models every four to five years, nearly twice as often as they did historically.

Murphy predicts that American auto sales will reach a record 18 million vehicles by 2018, surpassing the peak of 17.8 million units in 2000. Carmakers sold 15.4 million vehicles last year.

 
 
 

<a href="/latest_stories/all/all/30" rel="author">Forbes</a>
Forbes is among the most trusted resources for the world's business and investment leaders, providing them the uncompromising commentary, concise analysis, relevant tools and real-time reporting they need to succeed at work, profit from investing and have fun with the rewards of winning.

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

Latest stories

Aston Martin DBX Electric GT Concept Stuns
Aston Martin DBX Electric GT Concept Stuns
Aston Martin continues to reveal extreme car designs in time for the Geneva Motor Show 2015. Meet the Aston Martin DBX Electric GT.
 
 
Apple is designing its own Electric Car?
Apple is designing its own Electric Car?
Tesla has been rightfully warned in the nick of time. An Apple Car is in the works and it might outdo Tesla Motors. Apple is hiring chief automotive executives and engineers, for its top secret project to build an electric car named ‘Titan’.
 
 
Aston Martin Vulcan
Aston Martin Vulcan Super Car Revealed
Aston Martin revealed another new sportscar after the amazing Aston Martin DB10 for James Bond. Meet the wildest Aston Martin yet. The Aston Martin Vulcan.
 
 
Aston Martin Vulcan unleashed
Aston Martin Vulcan unleashed
The Aston Martin Vulcan is a track-only supercar and it for sure the British luxury brand’s most intense and exhilarating car so far. The 800-plus horse-power, all-carbon fiber Aston Martin Vulcan is set for extreme...